Rates Spark: ECB Presser Bear-Flattened The Curve

The ECB cut rates by 25bp as widely anticipated, but a slightly hawkish tilt bear flattened the EUR curve, which in our view remains priced aggressively. In the US, as the markets head towards the Fed's first rate cut, the probability of a larger cut rose slightly on Thursday.

Seeking Alpha • Sep 13, 2024

Estimating The Impact Of Lower Rates On Bond Fund Dividends

It generally takes a few years for changes in Federal Reserve rates to fully impact bond fund dividends. Bond funds are still benefitting from prior rate hikes. Perhaps by enough to cancel out any future rate cuts. By my estimations, and under current Fed guidance, most bond funds would only start to see declining dividends in 2025, at the earliest.

Seeking Alpha • Feb 11, 2024

ECB May Limit Hikes As Recession Nears

Europe is facing the risk of an energy shock-driven recession and periphery stress. That's why we think the ECB will stop hiking earlier than the Fed.

Seeking Alpha • Jul 18, 2022

Rates Outlook: Swap Spreads To See Widening Pressure

While there is upward pressure on market rates in 2022, it's not coming from higher net supply. In fact, lower net supply can help to richen government bonds. On top of that, we should see flatter curves over the whole of 2022. We also anticipate some upward pressure on USD Libor.

Seeking Alpha • Dec 11, 2021

Mind The Bond Market

The deficit spending that supported the economy in 2020 is showing up in hot inflation numbers in 2021. While I think the inflation numbers will get better in 2022, I do not believe they will get back to pre-pandemic levels because of owners' equivalent rents and wage gains in the CPI.

Seeking Alpha • Nov 18, 2021

Tapering Impact On Treasury Supply

At the November FOMC meeting, the Fed officially announced that it would begin tapering its bond purchase program, starting in mid-November. When the Fed began tapering its QE3 program over the course of 2014, the coupon supply from the U.S. Treasury was stable, leading to an increase in net supply takedown from the private market.

Seeking Alpha • Nov 16, 2021

Alternate Forms of Income Aside from Stocks, Bonds

It’s no secret that yield is hard to come by nowadays, which is causing fixed income investors to search for alternate sources beyond stocks and bonds. However, in a recent MarketWatch article, Nick Maggiulli, COO for Ritholtz Wealth Management LLC, cited other opportunities that investors should consider in their search for income.

ETF Trends • Sep 17, 2020

Fed’s Bond Purchasing Puts Long Duration Fixed Income ETFs in Focus

As part of its bond purchasing initiatives to help maintain liquidity in this coronavirus-stricken market, the Fed went long as in long duration bonds first and foremost in last week’s Treasury note purchases.

ETF Trends • Mar 18, 2020