Japanese Yield Spike And The Leveraged TBT ETF

The ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TBT) is rated a buy for short-term bearish exposure to long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, given accelerating declines in Japanese and U.S. government bonds. JGBs have fallen 6% since April 2025, driven by persistent inflation, wage growth, yen weakness, and BOJ tightening, with yields at multi-year highs. Rising Japanese yields are seen as a major global risk, with potential spillover to U.S. bond markets and amplified downside for TLT.

Seeking Alpha • Dec 1, 2025

TBT Provides -2x Leveraged Exposure To The 20-Year Treasury

TBT offers -2x daily performance of 20+ Year Treasury Bonds, but is highly risky and unsuitable for long-term holding due to value decay. Leveraged inverse ETFs like TBT can experience significant compounding effects and performance drift if held beyond a single day, amplifying potential losses. Macroeconomic factors and likely Fed rate cuts in September 2025 could drive long-term Treasury yields lower, making TBT vulnerable to further declines.

Seeking Alpha • Aug 18, 2025

TBT: Trading The Long Side Of Yield Curve

TBT offers -2x daily inverse exposure to long-term Treasuries, ideal for tactical bets on rising yields in the 20–30-year segment. Current macro signals—steep 10-20-30 curve, high NSS asymptote, and a non-alert BMSA—support a tactical long position in TBT. This ETF is best suited for disciplined, short-term trades, not buy-and-hold, due to daily resets and leverage risks.

Seeking Alpha • Aug 18, 2025

This legendary investor has been shorting Treasury bonds. Here's how to bet with him — without going broke.

Stanley Druckenmiller's bet against America's debt is no ordinary trade.

Market Watch • Jul 15, 2025

TBT For A Bond Market 'Crack'

The U.S. 30-year Treasury bond market remains in a bearish trend, with critical support at the October 2023 low and risks of a further breakdown. Jamie Dimon and bond market vigilantes warn of a potential 'crack' in the bond market, driven by high U.S. debt, policy uncertainty, and rising rates. Moody's recent downgrade and persistent fiscal concerns reinforce the bearish case, but surprises or shocks could trigger a bond market rally.

Seeking Alpha • Jun 3, 2025

ETF Strategies to Follow Wall Street Forecasts Higher Bond Yields

Investors are increasingly betting on higher long-term U.S. Treasury yields, due to growing concerns over the nation's rising debt and widening fiscal deficits.

Zacks Investment Research • May 21, 2025

My Favorite Strategy To Trade Long-Term Treasury Bonds

The strategy uses signals to go long and short on bonds via TMF and TBT. By comparing the 30-day performance of SPY and DJP, the strategy determines positions in TBT or TMF based on inflation and asset price trends. The strategy shows positive alpha, negative beta to SPY, and outperforms TLT and SPY in average performance and Sharpe ratio, with lower drawdowns.

Seeking Alpha • Feb 24, 2025

TBT: Inverse Bond Exposure Is The Key Hedge To My Trump Portfolio

Inverse bond exposure is attractive short to medium term due to inflationary pressures from Trump's economic policies, despite my generally bullish stance on equities. December inflation data shows a 2.9% CPI increase, above the Fed's 2% target, suggesting the potential for continued inflation and higher interest rates. Tariffs and tax cuts under Trump's administration are expected to drive inflation through increased consumer prices and disposable income, outweighing potential labor supply shocks.

Seeking Alpha • Feb 4, 2025

ETF Strategies to Play Amid Rising Treasury Yields

These ETF strategies may safeguard your portfolio amid rising treasury yields.

Zacks Investment Research • Jan 14, 2025

Inverse Treasury ETFs Rallying on Spike in Yields

The spike in yields has led to a surge in ETFs that bet against U.S. Treasury bonds.

Zacks Investment Research • Jan 8, 2025