Attention Bond Bulls For 2026- Put The Leveraged TMF ETF On Your Radar

The Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF (TMF), is recommended as a short-term bullish trading tool amid rising long bond futures. Fed rate cuts, stable inflation, and a likely Fed leadership change in 2026 could catalyze a bond rally toward the 127.22 resistance. Persistent U.S. debt, credit downgrades, and reduced global demand pose risks to long-term rate declines and bond upside.

Seeking Alpha • Dec 9, 2025

TMF: Rate Decisions Increasingly Dependent On Equity Valuations

The Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares offers leveraged exposure to long-term Treasury rates, amplifying both gains and losses. TMF's daily resetting leverage causes value erosion, making it suitable only for short-term speculation on imminent catalysts, not for buy-and-hold investors. Current market uncertainty, data delays, and muted Fed action reduce the appeal of TMF until more significant rate decisions approach in 2026.

Seeking Alpha • Nov 24, 2025

TMF: Leveraged Treasuries Might Work As A Diversification Tool Over 6-12 Months

I expect a U.S. recession soon, making long-term Treasuries attractive as yields typically fall during economic downturns, boosting bond prices. My proprietary trading research indicates a technical bottom is likely in Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF, prompting me to initiate a small position for a speculative trade. I rate TMF a Buy for tactical bond positioning with leverage, but would not hold beyond 12 months due to swap expenses and the risk of foreign Treasury liquidations.

Seeking Alpha • Aug 21, 2025

Are You Brave Enough To Buy The World's 10 Riskiest ETFs?

Risk is in vogue with ETF investors again. Signs of speculative fervor are increasingly clear — but are investors willing to jump in?

Investors Business Daily • Jul 31, 2025

Fed Easing Could Heat These ETFs This Summer

May's inflation data could bring Treasury bulls back into the fray. If the Fed has the signal they need to start easing monetary policy, then it could bring up the Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (TMF) and the Direxion Daily 7-10 Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (TYD).

ETF Trends • Jul 7, 2025

TMF: Not Favorable In Fat-Tailed Conflict Environment

TMF is correlated with shorter-duration ETFs, meaning that it's affected by what's happening to oil prices, inflation outlook and conflict in the Middle East. Long-term risks include concerns over the USD's reserve currency status, which is reflected in long-term yields. Given heightened geopolitical risks and uncertain rate expectations, I do not view duration bets like TMF as attractive at this time.

Seeking Alpha • Jun 16, 2025

Heavy Market Volatility Creates Opportunities for Treasuries

Tariffs are roiling the major stock market indexes with volatility. So investors have been pouring into bonds to escape the turmoil.

ETF Trends • Apr 16, 2025

TMF: No Silver Lining

President Trump's tariff policy risks triggering a severe recession or depression, with potential global economic fallout and retaliatory actions from trading partners. The tariffs are essentially a massive tax hike, affecting everyday items and potentially leading to significant economic downturns worse than the 2008 crisis. Economic uncertainty, market volatility, and recession risks are spiking, with equity prices likely to decline significantly as P/E ratios adjust to lower earnings.

Seeking Alpha • Apr 7, 2025

Direxion Debuts New Single-Stock ETFs for Eli Lilly & Palo Alto

On Wednesday, Direxion expanded its suite of leveraged and inverse ETF products with the launch of four new funds.  Each of the new Direxion ETFs offers leveraged or inverse exposure to a single stock's daily price performance.

ETF Trends • Mar 26, 2025

My Favorite Strategy To Trade Long-Term Treasury Bonds

The strategy uses signals to go long and short on bonds via TMF and TBT. By comparing the 30-day performance of SPY and DJP, the strategy determines positions in TBT or TMF based on inflation and asset price trends. The strategy shows positive alpha, negative beta to SPY, and outperforms TLT and SPY in average performance and Sharpe ratio, with lower drawdowns.

Seeking Alpha • Feb 24, 2025