Bond Vigilantes Smell Blood In The Water

Treasury Secretary Bessent insists on challenging the bond vigilantes, and neither side is backing down. The underlying trends are pointing toward volatility ahead and potentially much more.

Seeking Alpha • Sep 15, 2026

Market Brief: The Quarter's Most Pivotal 48 Hours

On Wednesday, July 29, the FOMC rate decision will be followed by Microsoft and Meta earnings after the close. Thursday begins with the advance estimate of Q2 GDP and the June PCE inflation report before Apple and Amazon report after the bell. CME FedWatch currently implies a 62–65% probability that the Fed holds rates in July, with the remaining probability assigned to a hike.

Seeking Alpha • Jul 28, 2026

UBT: Uncertainty Ignites Recession Fears - Bonds Could Rally

The stock market correction has raised fears of a recession, with the VIX index showing elevated volatility amid geopolitical and domestic uncertainties. The Trump administration's tariff initiatives and energy policies are causing market volatility but could potentially lower inflation and support a bond market rally. February's CPI data indicates receding inflation, suggesting the Fed may continue cutting short-term rates, which could boost economic growth and lower long-term rates.

Seeking Alpha • Mar 13, 2025

UBT: Leveraged Exposure To 20-Year Treasuries Would Be Unwise Now

The ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury ETF (UBT) aims to deliver twice the daily performance of the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index. UBT manages $116.30M, charges a 0.95% expense ratio, and leverages through swaps with a weighted average maturity of 25.90 years and duration of 17.58 years. Key drivers include monetary policy, inflation expectations, growth, geopolitical factors, and compounding from leverage resetting.

Seeking Alpha • Feb 8, 2025

UBT: The Contrarian Levered Play On Treasuries

Long-duration Treasuries might be a buy, especially in a recession; consider ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury ETF for leveraged exposure. UBT aims for 2x daily returns of the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index, using swaps for leverage. UBT's moderate leverage and lower expense ratio make it appealing compared to peers like Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares.

Seeking Alpha • Nov 6, 2024

Rates Spark: ECB Presser Bear-Flattened The Curve

The ECB cut rates by 25bp as widely anticipated, but a slightly hawkish tilt bear flattened the EUR curve, which in our view remains priced aggressively. In the US, as the markets head towards the Fed's first rate cut, the probability of a larger cut rose slightly on Thursday.

Seeking Alpha • Sep 13, 2024

Understanding Bull And Bear Market Cycles With Jon Wolfenbarger

Jon Wolfenbarger aims to help individual investors generate double-digit profits and beat the market in both bull and bear markets.

Seeking Alpha • Mar 13, 2024

Leveraged Treasury ETFs in Vogue on Rate Cut Bets

Treasuries are on a sharp rally fueled by bets that Fed rate hikes might be nearing an end. Investors could tap the opportune moment by going long on this instrument with the help of ETFs to make quick profits.

Zacks Investment Research • Dec 7, 2023

UBT: If You Like Long Bonds Maybe You Should Like Them 2x

The ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury fund is a leveraged ETF. The vehicle seeks daily investment results that correspond to two times (2x) the daily performance of the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index.

Seeking Alpha • May 25, 2023

Rates Outlook: Swap Spreads To See Widening Pressure

While there is upward pressure on market rates in 2022, it's not coming from higher net supply. In fact, lower net supply can help to richen government bonds. On top of that, we should see flatter curves over the whole of 2022. We also anticipate some upward pressure on USD Libor.

Seeking Alpha • Dec 11, 2021