Bond Vigilantes Smell Blood In The Water

Treasury Secretary Bessent insists on challenging the bond vigilantes, and neither side is backing down. The underlying trends are pointing toward volatility ahead and potentially much more.

Seeking Alpha • Sep 15, 2026

Market Brief: The Quarter's Most Pivotal 48 Hours

On Wednesday, July 29, the FOMC rate decision will be followed by Microsoft and Meta earnings after the close. Thursday begins with the advance estimate of Q2 GDP and the June PCE inflation report before Apple and Amazon report after the bell. CME FedWatch currently implies a 62–65% probability that the Fed holds rates in July, with the remaining probability assigned to a hike.

Seeking Alpha • Jul 28, 2026

Rates Spark: ECB Presser Bear-Flattened The Curve

The ECB cut rates by 25bp as widely anticipated, but a slightly hawkish tilt bear flattened the EUR curve, which in our view remains priced aggressively. In the US, as the markets head towards the Fed's first rate cut, the probability of a larger cut rose slightly on Thursday.

Seeking Alpha • Sep 13, 2024

Leveraged Treasury ETFs in Vogue on Rate Cut Bets

Treasuries are on a sharp rally fueled by bets that Fed rate hikes might be nearing an end. Investors could tap the opportune moment by going long on this instrument with the help of ETFs to make quick profits.

Zacks Investment Research • Dec 7, 2023

Time to Buy Leveraged Treasury Bond ETFs?

The latest Middle East conflict between Israel and Palestine boosted the safe-haven demand and dragged down U.S. treasury bond yields.

Zacks Investment Research • Oct 11, 2023

Rates Outlook: Swap Spreads To See Widening Pressure

While there is upward pressure on market rates in 2022, it's not coming from higher net supply. In fact, lower net supply can help to richen government bonds. On top of that, we should see flatter curves over the whole of 2022. We also anticipate some upward pressure on USD Libor.

Seeking Alpha • Dec 11, 2021

Mind The Bond Market

The deficit spending that supported the economy in 2020 is showing up in hot inflation numbers in 2021. While I think the inflation numbers will get better in 2022, I do not believe they will get back to pre-pandemic levels because of owners' equivalent rents and wage gains in the CPI.

Seeking Alpha • Nov 18, 2021

Tapering Impact On Treasury Supply

At the November FOMC meeting, the Fed officially announced that it would begin tapering its bond purchase program, starting in mid-November. When the Fed began tapering its QE3 program over the course of 2014, the coupon supply from the U.S. Treasury was stable, leading to an increase in net supply takedown from the private market.

Seeking Alpha • Nov 16, 2021

Inflation Expectations Come Unanchored

Inflation expectation is a key metric the Fed watches closely. Housing costs - based on different measures of rents - account for one-third of CPI.

Seeking Alpha • Oct 13, 2021

Rates Spark: The Long Way Up

Higher rates are ongoing, but we wouldn't blame it on the, very moderate in our view, central bank tone. Improving economic data after the Covid 19-induced soft patch is a more credible, and durable, driver for higher rates.

Seeking Alpha • Sep 28, 2021